So, I read somewhere...

So I've been reading some books recently (Mind Hacks and Mind Wide Open since it is necessary due to the nature of this post) about the nature of the mind. One of the biggest things that I have learned about is the problem of source confusion and false memories. Boiling it down, here's the real problem: I use the phrase "I read somewhere" more often than I should, and I trust people who use the phrase "I read somewhere" much more than I should.


So why is this a problem? When learning new information, your mind makes connections with previous information. If you read something or hear something from a unreliable source (or even better, you hear half of something while you are flipping channels), and then something else from some source (either reliable or unreliable), your brain begins to synthesize this ideas into new thoughts. Well, here's the core of the problem: That new thought might be total garbage because a garbage source was used in its development.


What I have learned through reading the books mentioned above, as it has processed and connected with a few other experiences recently, is that I have lots of garbage in my mind that is scaffolding for lots of other garbage - and I have no idea what the original sources are for quite a bit of this information. ("Somewhere" and second-hand "somewhere".)


So, how much of whever is in my mind reliable? Do I need to start completely over? Obviously, I can't just throw away 35 years of knowledge and memories. I also have a large amount of practical knowledge that I didn't learn from books or from classroom settings that I feel that I can rely on because I learned by doing and that "doing" works (such as computer programming and breathing).


I think that several people in the world also need some mental housekeeping. How many of our convictions are based on things that we were taught and that we have never actually convinced ourselves of?

“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” - Bill Gates?

This quote exists on the internet and people like to point out how little foresight Mr. Gates had in that situation. However, according to everything2.org/?node_id=91182, Bill refuted this quote in a January, 19, 1996 article in the New York Times saying “I've said some stupid things and some wrong things, but not that.” The article on the everything2.org website ends by quoting Mr. Gates “Meanwhile, I keep bumping into that silly quotation attributed to me that says 640K of memory is enough. There's never a citation; the quotation just floats like a rumor, repeated again and again." It is a great article about the importance of citing sources and providing proof for your statements. The ironic part is that searching nytimes.com for any of these quotes comes up void. That’s right, it’s entirely possible that Bill Gates never said that he never said that quote about 640K.

Should I pursue programming as a career?

I received an email from a former student with a question in it pertaining to pursuing programming as a career. Basically: with all of the layoffs in the industry, is a computer science career even worth pursuing? Here is how I replied: [I made some blanket statements that don't carry in all cases. Not everybody that has been laid off has been an idiot - some were shrapnel that got caught in the cross-fire. And some idiots kept their jobs. Some good friends have been laid off, I'm explaining the reasons that the layoff happened, I'm not agreeing with the decision.]
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Computers don't seem to be going away. (Fads generally only last for 20-25 years. I know it sounds funny, but 10 years ago, there was a lot of conversations about computers being on the way out - especially with the layoff issues that you mentioned. Anyway, what is going on is that the market was over-saturated. There were a lot of "idiots with computers" that thought that they knew how to program and so they all started getting jobs at companies writing programs. Companies started to realize that there were third-party programs that were better than what their "local guy" was coming up with - this was especially true with web pages. There were some guys that had figured out HTML that had no artistic skills that started throwing together flat web pages - and the company saw that they could hire somebody to create a web site that had some quality and so they laid off the guy that wasn't necessary.

All this to say - Here's what I see in the market. Companies are not interested in hobbyist programmers anymore. They want people with skills. What skills? Web programming, xml, .net. (From talking to friends in the industry, Java is on a down-swing right now. Traditionally Sun, Microsoft, and Borland have taken turns at the top at about a 5 year cycle. Now that the chief exec of Borland moved to Microsoft, I think it will be Sun and Microsoft for a while. Microsoft is currently on the up (more on this in a bit).) The other thing that will make you employable is a degree in programming. It does a lot more than "just figuring it out on your own" or high school classes. The final piece that will make you employable is to stay on the cutting edge as much as possible. Learn about Windows Vista (new name for Longhorn) and stay current with web programming trends. In 5 years, learn whatever else is very new. Stay on the front so that your information never gets a chance to go stale. (But keep your programming in the current. Just because tomorrow's computer will run your software doesn't mean that people will buy it.)

A final thought on Windows Vista. Windows Vista is going to break a LOT of programs. Windows Vista will not run programs that currently run on the Windows SDK. Windows Vista will require programs to be written in .net. VERY few people know .net right now. And lots of companies want their programs to work in Windows Vista. (Do you see the connection?) So, in the next 5 years especially people will be hiring .net programmers like they are going out of style. But watch out because in 5-10 years there will be layoffs as everybody gets up to speed. That's why you can't sit on .net. You need to be able to adjust for the next big thing so that you don't join the layoff group. It's a betting man's game, but from watching the game for 15 years, I've learned some things.